House Burning Down

 

It might be useful to consider further the relationship between the production of paper news and the production of paper money.

 

I observed that both paper money and paper news are forms of informational transaction. This might be more accurately described as  the transfer of meaning. In this sense ‘meaning’ is the value measurement of information; Meaning is the unit of value of information because meaning transforms data into information and makes it valuable. The construction of meaning is exactly the assigning of value to data.

 

Consider hyper inflation in the money supply . In the traditional monetarist model (the one that has more or less taken over all mainstream economics), this is caused by an oversupply of money into the market. In other words Monetarists argue that the problem of hyper inflation and inflation generally is one of quantity. Actually the problem is one of quality. We can show this with the following:

 

There is a direct relationship between publishing an edition of a newspaper and publishing an edition of money, which is effectively what is done each quarter when the interest rate is set. The interest rate is news about how things are going to be according to a central bank and money notes carry this news.

 

Money published at 0.5% base rate is a different edition of money from  that published at 1% base rate. Same ‘newspaper’, same publisher, but different news, different information, different headline.

 

Just as each particular edition  of a newspaper contains information specific to a particular time and place (as I mentioned last time), the paper money note also contains information. I will describe the nature of this information below but for now lets stick with newspapers.

 

In the example of a newspaper, let us say that the edition of January 6 has the headline: ‘War Is Declared!’. And the edition of January 7 has the headline that ‘Peace Is Declared!’. Taken in sequence the meaning of these events is clear.

 

First there is a state of war, then there is a state of peace and the present condition of affairs is that of peace.

 

Now imagine that the newspapers in question were not dated January 6 and January 7 so that there was no way of telling which was the first headline and which was the second. It could be the case that war is declared and then peace declared or it could be the case that peace is declared and then war is declared. So in the first instance we are now in a state of peace and in the second instance we are now in a state of war.

 

Now let us say that an unscrupulous news agent receives both editions of the undated newspaper from the publisher in correct order but chooses to release them to the local population in either one or the other order for his own personal advantage. If the local newsagent wants to promote the idea that we are at a state of war he will release the newspaper with a war headline second and if he wants to promote the idea that we are at peace he will release that newspaper second.

 

Just such an instance as this is described when  banker Nathan Rothschild famously withheld news of the British victory at Waterloo in order to take advantage of market uncertainty as to the outcome of the battle. By the time the markets received the news that Wellington had won,  Rothschild had bought equities at knock down prices  and made a killing on the rising market.

 

If the local population becomes aware of the possibility that news may be manipulated by a local newsagent for the purpose of controlling perceptions, they might hold on to one or more editions of a newspaper in order to compare headlines and get some idea of what the actual facts of the matter are in sequence.

 

 

Logically, in such a case the local population will have to conclude that NO particular edition of a newspaper is to be objectively trusted and that all editions are either wrong or lying. In other words the paper in its entirety is worthless rather than just this or that edition. This is the qualitive nature of the problem.

 

After all, how can two editions of the same newspaper with the same editor and the same journalists and with no differential date information be judged between? How can you know which is the truth NOW and which is not?  This is in effect what happens in the case of hyper inflation.

 

Think of a paper money note as a generalised abstracted unit of information. On a more sophisticated level we can think of a money note as a unit of evidence. We can say that one or more units of evidence goes up to make an argument and that therefore the more units of evidence you can muster in support of any particular argument the more likely you are to win that particular argument.

 

In a standard economic transaction the argument in question is that you should sell a car,(or any other commodity), to me for this number of paper notes. Or to put it another way, you should swap your car for this number of paper notes.

 

The more units of evidence that you can muster in support of this argument, i.e. the more paper notes that you offer in return for the car, the more likely you are to win that argument.

 

But there is an unfortunate corollary to this. If you win the ‘argument’; by offering more pieces of paper money evidence than the other guy, you also implicitly argue that each individual piece of paper money evidence is worth relatively less.

 

We can return to the practical consequences of this shortly but first, as I argued last time paper bank notes or units of evidence are introduced into the market at a particular time and particular place and at a particular price. So in this sense, they are first and foremost evidence in an argument on behalf of central government made to the general population.

 

The individual argument that paper money notes are evidence for is: ‘These pieces of paper are valuable to this or that extent not only in comparison with objects such as commodities, but those pieces of money paper that have gone before and those pieces of money paper that will come after’.

 

This is of crucial importance.

 

From this perspective the crisis point of hyper inflation occurs when too much information is presented at any one time which results in not a quantitive problem but a qualitive one.

 

Let us say that two purchasers are competing to buy a particular car. They both make the argument that you should swap the car for this number of pieces of paper money. The number of pieces of paper money is the totality of evidence that this or that exchange argument is true and valid.

 

Obviously they cannot offer the same number of pieces of paper as evidence/arguments or the seller will have no way of differentiating between the two. So let us say that Buyer A offers 100 money units and buyer B offers 110 money units. Buyer B wins the argument because he has offered more ‘evidence’ in support of his argument. So far so good.

 

But what if Buyer A offers 100 units as before but Buyer B offers 5000 units? What is the seller to make of that? These two arguments are wildly different, they containing wildly differing amounts of evidence in the form of money notes. (bear ‘fake news’ in mind at this point)

 

Well surely the answer is simple, the seller takes Buyer B’s offer.

 

Not so fast. Most sellers would want to know a little more about it before making a decision in these circumstances. The problem is the totality of evidence.

 

Instead of 210 units in total chasing the car,(both bids), which might be seen as reasonable there are 5100 units chasing the car which is not seen as reasonable given what the seller knows or thinks he knows. Something else is going on…

 

What if a third buyer comes along ten minutes later and offers 10,000 units for the same car? Now the seller will be pretty sure something is seriously going wrong. And the inevitable effect is that he will be forced to distrust all money notes in whatever amount because they are all the same.

 

If ten information money notes are worthless then 10,00 money notes are equally worthless, this is both the strength and weakness of the informational money system. The implication is that the seller  will be forced to distrust the overall message he is getting from the government. But it is a qualitive and not quantitive problem because it does not rely on amounts.

 

So what was that central bank/government message I referred to above? It is that ‘We are in charge and everything is all right’. That is the basic unit of money news implicit in every money note.

 

The second piece of money news is the interest rate, which is the price at which private banks buy money from the central bank. This can be understood as that particular headline for the quarter. But this piece of money news is intimately tied up with the distribution mechanism of the paper notes themselves.

 

A newspaper printing and distribution operation will have a central printing press, regional distribution warehouses and sub warehouses which distribute to newsagents and even paper sellers on the street.

 

Each element of the distribution chain decides how many papers to take and to move on down the chain of distribution according to how profitable they predict this process will be. This depends to a large extent on the nature of the headline. ‘Queen Dies!’ or ‘War Is Declared!’ will tend to sell more copies than ‘Water Supply Goes Off In Addis Ababa’ or whatever. (perhaps not in Ethiopia though..) So the headline affects and ultimately controls the distribution process.

 

The same is true with interest rates. Depending on what the Central Bank decides the interest rate will be, each element of the distribution chain, from the large commercial banks downwards decides how much of this edition of money they will take and distribute according to how profitable they calculate it to be.

 

But what is of the utmost importance to understand is that in the case of money news everyone in the chain acts like the unscrupulous news agent I described above. Everybody is encouraged to withhold editions of the news  and to release them onto the market only when it is in their individual best interests!

 

When you receive any particular edition of money, you either release it into the public by means of spending it or you withhold it by means of saving it. You manipulate the information contained in the note for your own best interests. That is what you are supposed to do- to lie, to spread disinformation.

 

Of course everybody is therefore equally dishonest and so no-one can point the finger at anyone else. The system is based upon everybody spreading corruption and lies. Wouldn’t such a system be inherently unstable and prone to periodic collapse?

 

You betcha!

 

Wouldn’t someone try to contain this corruption and tendency to collapse? Wouldn’t they try to devise a system to mitigate the problem?

 

Yes they would. They would take the logical step of trying to date and order the headlines on each edition so they could be read and understood in sequence. How would they do that?

 

By means of a code that can be read and understood by themselves but importantly, not by you. If you doubt this, take out a currency note and find the identifying  code printed on it, usually referred to as the serial number. Do you know what this code means? If you do not, why don’t you? After all it is supposed to be money issued by a democratically elected government in your name and for your benefit!

 

The purpose of this code is for the people who issued the notes to understand each ‘headline’ and the order it was issued in, but not for you, or anyone like you, to be able to.

 

The system is built on a small minority being able to fully understand the meaning of the money news and the vast majority below them taking part in a game of charades where they lie to each other and manipulate the news supply to each other for the purpose of individual advantage.

 

As a simple illustration of this suppose you had 500 units of currency  and you found out that this denomination of money would be abolished or worthless the next day. What would you do? You would try to go out and buy something with it wouldn’t you? You would try to use the information advantage that you had to pass the problem onto someone else. This is the key to inflation and hyperinflation.

 

We are building up a picture of a central money news/information agency that is issuing news on a regular basis. That news/information is then taken up by the various parts of a supply chain and manipulated and distorted in order to obtain the best possible individual outcome but with inevitable damage to the system as a whole. Assuming that he purpose of the system is to transmit information that is.

 

With this news information model in mind we can now go back to look at hyper inflation. The trouble with hyper inflation is that the seller has no way of knowing which is the most valued up to date piece of information on which to base his decision.

 

This problem presents itself as there being too many pieces of money information in circulation. Discrepancies between the amounts of money evidence offered in any particular argument (trade), force the seller  to increasingly regard all pieces of paper money as being equally invalid- hence the hyper inflation.

 

But the root of the problem here is not validity of any particular trade argument and the money evidence presented in support of it  but the equality between each and all pieces of evidence. Because of this money is actually only credible and valid within a relatively narrow and stable bank of circulation. The sameness of each piece of money information  requires sameness of prediction and sameness of outcome to work.

 

No matter how many paper notes are issued in any financial period they are all  of equal validity to  paper notes  issued  in another given quarter. In other words any episode of  inflationary money printing activity is absorbed into the whole of the financial system and is only ameliorated by later activity.

 

Just as any incorrect news report is absorbed into news production and distribution system as a whole. The system relies on its credibility to absorb the effects of any mistakes and keep people believing in the system even as they curse and dispute virtually all of the specific outcomes the system produces!

 

Since individual savers and consumers effectively act as newsagents, storing the information and only releasing it when it suits the particular interest of the moment, it is inevitable that conflicts of meaning and value will happen.

 

Hyper inflation is an insane babble of arguments that taken collectively can only mean that each individual argument is more or less worthless  since in the last analysis it is all the same argument, that we are in control and everything is alright.

 

Periodically the logic of worthlessness produced by exchanging paper money arguments is expressed by and through a significant number of news agents  going from one door to another  desperately seeking a way out as they sense the impending doom.

 

As the doors are increasingly closed to news hawkers selling bogus information  brands the volume of money seeking any  way out increases exponentially until an overwhelming tsunami of money at any and every exit guarantees it cannot escape. Think of it as a house besieged by fifty street newspaper sellers shouting:

 

‘Extra! Extra! Your House Is Burning Down!’

 

while the house owner cowers within.

 

Disaster.

 

In conclusion I will ask: Is there anything we could do to rectify this state of affairs?

 

And surprisingly perhaps, there is a very simple and very straightforward solution. To date and value stamp money. So that instead of being interchangeable all money is clearly given a value – a ‘sell by date’ at which time it becomes valueless.

 

The closer this expiry date comes, the less the exchange value of the money note. This would solve all the problems now associated with inflation hyper inflation and Monetarism then we could…

 

Oh wait a minute.

 

This form of money already exists. It is called a bond. It is what the banks themselves use when they are dealing with central banks.

 

LISTEN UP

LISTEN UP

LISTEN UP

LISTEN UP

LISTEN UP

LISTEN UP

LISTEN UP

LISTEN UP

LISTEN UP

 

If there is only one thing you take away from all this it should be:

 

THERE IS MORE THAN ONE FORM OF MONEY, THERE ALWAYS HAS BEEN. EACH MONEY FORM SERVES THE NEEDS OF ITS CREATORS. ANYONE CAN CREATE MONEY BECAUSE MONEY IS A COMMONS. MONEY IS A COMMONS BECAUSE IT IS NOT ANY PARTICULAR THING IT IS A FUNCTION- SOMETHING THAT AN OBJECT CAN BE MADE TO DO.

 

GOVERNMENTS MAKE MONEY FORMS TO CONTROL THEIR POPULATION. BANKS AND CORPORATIONS MAKE MONEY FORMS TO CONTROL THE PUBLIC. BITCOIN IS A METHOD OF CONTROLLING ANY SUCKER WHO BUYS INTO IT.

 

PRIVATELY ISSUED DEMOCRATISED MONEY IN THE FORM OF DERIVATIVES IS THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE ATTEMPT EVER DEVISED IN HISTORY TO CONTROL THE WORLD POPULATION DIRECTLY THROUGH THE PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION OF A NEW MONEY FORM.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

Spelling It Out or It’s Not You, It’s Me

You can often hear proponents of the ‘Austrian’ school and others on the ‘right’ calling for the market to set base interest rates. This bizarre call is a non sequitur – meaningless.

 

The market is made up of both buyers and sellers and their interests are necessarily conflicting. The market does not ‘speak’ with one voice; by definition, it cannot. How can it set anything?

 

It is like asking a field of runners halfway through a race to come to an agreement on where the finish line should be…

 

Of course the market can’t collectively determine anything. Firstly, when the market ‘speaks’ it is the preponderance of individual views of within the market. When the market ‘speaks’ it is the result of something; it is a reaction; the exact opposite of being the cause of something.

 

Secondly, for communication to convey meaning it has to be the result of some form of reason. For the market to actually express a meaningful point of view it would be necessary for it to consciously arrive at a point of view, enunciate that point of view and stick to it.

 

But the market changes, literally from second to second because the balance of forces within the market changes from second to second. Even if you were to somehow accept the idea of ‘speech’ from the market, you have to accept that the meaning of that speech will change in a couple of seconds time. Even if you try to argue the market has a mind, you have to accept that the market can never make that mind up.

 

Because although the buyers and sellers who make up a market are supposed to be rational agents expressing their own rational self interest, the cumulative consequence of their actions is not. These are the ‘animal spirits’ of ‘fear’ and ‘greed’ that everyone agrees the market expresses.

 

Market religion claims that by means of alchemy the market changes base instincts into what is best for everybody inside and outside the market. Somehow something even better than considered reason appears spontaneously!

 

The market cannot speak because it cannot have an established continual rational point of view and it cannot create a rational point of view because it is made up of conflicting impulses. If there was no such conflict it wouldn’t be a market.

 

It does not matter whether it is a pre-centralised system of private banks or a modern central bank system, a rational market ‘mechanism’ to set base rates is impossible.

 

It follows from this that if base interest rates are to be set for any given period, they have to be presented to the market in advance by somebody outside the market, working to some kind of rationale. And every nation and collection of nations operates on this basis.

 

So what is behind the call for base interest rates to be set by the market? The main reason given is that interest rates are seen to be all going one way. Since the Credit Crunch and the implementation of ’emergency measures’ central banks have followed a Zero Interest Rate Policy.

 

Of course, it is becoming harder and harder to see ZIRP as an ‘emergency’ measure after seven years or so. Direct government dictat has the consequence of shredding the rhetoric of supposed central bank independence.

 

And ZIRP disguises a secular decline in interest rates that has been taking place in the Anglo Saxon economies since the 1980’s. Economists on left and right have no way to explain this outside of tautology: Interest rates are low, well…. because interest rates are low.

 

I argue that base interest rates are proclamations made by an authority, be that authority elected government officials or ‘independent’ central banks.

 

The interest rate setting authority makes a proclamation; sometimes characterised as an offer depending on how you wish to portray it. Depending on how many individuals take up that offer, the issuing authority amends the offer next time, this is the market reasoning justification for the system.

 

If an increasingly large number of people take up the credit offer at a given interest rate the interest rate is increased to stem the ongoing flow of credit applications. If a decreasingly small number of people take up the credit offer at a given interest rate, the interest rate is decreased to stimulate the flow of credit applications.

 

You might ask: Why don’t authorities amend the interest rate from hour to hour or even minute to minute – why do they only change the interest rate quarterly?

 

The answer is they need time to collect, collate and process the information. Because their decision is supposed to be based on reason to some extent. You might not agree with their reasoning, but you wlll see that if a central bank announced that base interest rates will be 1.5% for the next hour based on a ‘hunch’, the economic system it was set up to administer wouldn’t last for very long!

 

In other words the system we used to have and the system as it is now are not the result of arbitrary choices, they operate at the exact limit of development allowed by politics and technology at any given time.

 

Since the system is not really open to arbitrary change what does that say about the decisions that the system makes? It means that the decisions it is making at this time are the only possible decisions it can make given the limitation of politics and technology. If we understand the constraints of politics and technology we can understand what the decisions have to be.

 

With this in mind, we should address the fact that the main decision of central banks seems to be not to make any decision. Interest rates are effectively at zero and staying there. We have the quarterly ritual of: ‘Will they, won’t they move off ZIRP?’ and the answer so far is always no.

 

This is problematic for me as I have argued that moving towards a new baseline average interest rate of 2.5-3.5% is the next step in the implementation of Democratised Money. I have also argued that international exchange rate blocs are a fundamental requirement for the international framework for Democratised Money. And neither of these things has happened yet.

 

It is possible that the delay in normalising interest rates and creating exchange rate blocs is linked to the Pacific and European TTIP agreements. Trade blocs like Pacific and European TTIP are an inevitable part of the Democratised Money world. It could be that nothing else will be done until they are both securely in place. Now that the Pacific TTIP is moving forward again, the increase in interest rates and exchange rate blocs will be implemented.

 

But I think there is another reason for continued ZIRP and it comes from the internal ‘logic’ specific to this exact time and place.

 

All central bank rate setters, be that the Federal reserve, The ECB or the Bank of England are ‘democratic’ to the extent that they vote to decide about where to set base rates but that is as far as the democracy goes.

 

Nobody elects the members of any central bank committee, they are there by appointment. So they cannot claim any democratic mandate per se. The justification for being there is actually an inversion of a democratic argument.

 

Independent central bank advocates argue that political control of base rates by an elected official is detrimental to market confidence in that rate. The rate setter needs to be able to operate independently of democratic ‘pressure’ e.g. pressure from electorates. Democratic voting is the method by which rates are arrived at, but technocratic reasoning is the justification.

 

But this line of argument presents certain problems.

 

The post 1970’s call for independent banking was justified by the Monetarist shibboleth of inflation. This was supposed to be the one and only overriding consideration. Monetarists claimed that if inflation was under control and the money supply regulated all would be well. But as the Credit crunch and resulting QE opened the door to direct political interference reasons had to be found to provide cover for and justify direct interference. And so the mandate of central banks was modified to include macro-economic ‘stability’.

 

When the situation was ‘stabilised’ to some extent it was suddenly found that central banks also needed to target unemployment and so interference would have to continue.

 

When employment seemed to recover somewhat, central banks discovered that broad economic growth must also be added to their macro economic mandate.

 

When growth seemed to recover somewhat central banks discovered the ‘productivity gap’. When it became apparent nobody really believed in the productivity gap or understood what it was, central banks discovered the threat that interest rate rises posed for developing economies and that is where we stand today.

 

The specific logical conundrum is this: If central banks are indeed identifying problems and fixing them as they claim to be, then they either have to find new problems to fix or to stop interfering in the market at some point. On the other hand, if central banks are identifying problems and not managing to fix them, then something is seriously wrong with the central bank system itself.

 

The upshot of this is that insurgents continually claim that central banks have failed to solve any of the serious macro economic problems. The establishment claim that they have solved a number of problems and are effectively managing the new ones that always seem to be appearing.

 

But what unites establishment and insurgents is the claim that central bank interference in the economy is somehow voluntary and limited. The establishment claims that the central banks will stop interfering at some point in the future because they will have fixed all the problems. The insurgents claim that the central banks interfere because they want to protect their fraudulent ponzi scheme etc.

 

But I argue that Monetarists have no choice but to interfere to in order to protect democratised money. Once the creation of privately issued money began, everything else that followed was inevitable.

 

The purpose of QE and ZIRP is to defend and promote the growth of privately issued democratised money. The Fed and the Bank of England cannot and will not stop with emergency measures until they believe that derivatives are completely integrated into the global financial system in a way that means they can never be removed.

 

It is this imperative to protect democratised money that has been the real reason behind the ongoing interference in money markets. It is this imperative that is the logic behind QE and ZIRP. And it was the belief that the project of irreversibly integrating democratised money has largely been achieved that led to the recent hints of a rise in base interest rates in America and Britain.

 

But the Fed cannot bring itself to pull the trigger. They are trapped in their own logic.

 

By citing an increasing number of different reasons for intervening, the central banks built for themselves a new group of constituencies. Effectively Inflation, GDP Growth, Unemployment, Productivity gap and Developing economies all represent constituencies that the central bank committees have come to claim to represent. And this is the argument that has largely been successful in justifying the central bank approach to the markets. It is a polygamous marriage of convenience. But to raise interest rates will undermine the interests of this collection of constituencies and bring to the fore the question of what the purpose of the central banks actually is.

 

This is the reason central banks are reluctant to begin raising interest rates. They cannot say they have fixed the central problem and ‘new normalise’ base rates without saying what the problem they have fixed, is!

 

The collection of constituencies that central banks have gathered together as a justification and cover for the democratised money project has proved to be very useful. But at some stage there is going to have to be a parting of the ways and at that moment a lot of people are going to be asking the central banks: ‘Did you ever really love me?’

A SHAME Or Why Crackernomics Matters

crying-sad-clown-23899989

It has been 7 years since what has come to be generally called ‘The Credit Crunch’ exploded in the world economy. And now after those 7 years Monetarists are ready to declare complete and unconditional victory in their battle to fundamentally and irrevocably alter the global economic and political landscape.

 

‘Alternative’ voices on the ‘left’ and the progressive ‘libertarian’ movement have totally failed to mount any sustained attack on the physical and intellectual structures that Monetarists have put in place. They have conceded every substantial point in economics and politics in the post Credit Crunch world. As a consequence there is nothing to stop the Monetarists concluding their takeover of existing systems and creating new global structures to further their plans.

 

Monetarist global restructuring is a massive and risk laden enterprise. But at every step of the way; at every major juncture when there was a danger of the Monetarist plan coming unstuck, the one thing that Monetarists have been able to count on is the unfailing inability of their opposition to understand the significance of the situation and take appropriate action.

 

As a consequence of these repeated failures what began as a hard beating has turned into a humiliating rout. Were this the extent of our woes it would be bad enough. But intellectual and moral collapse means that the very ideas that could underpin any chance of an alternative being created in the future are being corroded to the point where they will be soon be unsalvageable.

 

Those who claim that alternative economic and organisational forms will somehow spontaneously spring up as a response to the Monetarist onslaught are worse than naive. They are perhaps the most destructive force we face. Not only do they not challenge the new world order, but their ideas and prescriptions are built upon the very forms that give rise to it. They reinforce it. They guarantee its total victory.

 

You may disagree with this prognosis.You may think it overly gloomy. Or you may accept some of it but take comfort in the fact that ‘life’, your life and the lives of those you care about will go on, maybe not as well as before, but go on nevertheless. And in some sense you are right. It might be possible to put your head down, shut your mouth and try to get on with things the best you can within the situation you find yourself.

 

But that is simply to rationalise and accept loss. To turn your face away from the horror of your situation. Because once lost, freedoms are not retrieved, no matter what you might say to console yourself. Within half a generation people will not even remember what those freedoms were. They will become incomprehensible marks and signs in a book that mean nothing. Your children will be taught to despise them just as you have been taught to despise the freedoms and the dignities that existed before Capitalism. Or even the freedoms and the dignities that existed before WWII…

 

…Just like Winston Smith scribbling in his notebook. The real tragedy behind 1984 is not that it is so bad, it is that it is not so bad. People adapt. After a while the amputee can’t even remember what it was like to have two legs. That is not rhetoric, it is reality. And those who are most adaptable, best at forgetting, rise to the top just like Darwin says they must. We are programmed to forget.

 

Make no mistake, this is fundamentally about freedom. If you imagine yourself as an individualist and a libertarian who is happy to see the welfare state being dismantled and the post war liberal corporatist settlement being torn up, don’t kid yourself that the state is actually going to shrink as a consequence of all this. Not for one second.

Because if there is no butter on offer there will surely have to be plenty of guns. Now you are going to find out what a big state is really all about…

 

When I began writing the ‘United States of Everywhere’ I did so out of a sense of increasing incredulity at what I was seeing unfold. I saw the Credit Crunch and Q.E. as clearly the product of Monetarism, after all Q.E. was simply Monetarist ideology taken to its logical conclusion.. Was this analysis overly simplistic? Bernanke and Greenspan, all admitted Monetarists were advocating unprecedented printing of money while dismantling the post WWII welfare state. What else could this be but hard core Monetarism? I thought that many others would see this as clearly as I did and argue from this context. But they did not.

 

I tried to understand what could be stopping the majority of people from drawing what I thought were fairly obvious and uncontroversial conclusions. I began to wonder if there was something more deep seated within ‘western’ society that could account for this. I began to question the fundamental idea of progressive politics and of the left. Not whether they were ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ but whether they had ever really existed in any meaningful sense. And I began to research more closely what had actually happened in the Credit Crunch instead of relying on anybody elses (including the self-proclaimed opposition) analysis. And this was when I really became uneasy.

 

When I looked at actual information, I quickly became aware that what was being reported as the course of the Credit Crunch and Q.E. was not what was actually happening. And if this failure to report was true of the ‘establishment’ it was doubly true of the ‘opposition’. I could rationalise to myself that I understood why the ‘establishment’ would seek to put a certain spin on what was happening but I could not understand why the ‘oppostion’ would as well. It was clear to me that the problem was not just what was coming out of the opposition but what was going in. The input was just as distorted as the output. Why was this?

 

As I deconstructed what I read I realised that the securitisation of mortgages (bundling and re-selling), was a self sustaining system and that mortgages were being created to ‘feed’ the mortgage securities system and not the other way round! This was a self sustaining, potentially unlimited system and it was actually a license to ‘print’ money! In fact Securitised Mortgage Bundles (financial instruments) were money. What else can they be? What else can the term ‘financial instrument’ actually mean but money?

 

Financial:

pertaining or relating to money matters; pecuniary:

 

Instrument:

a tool or device used for a particular purpose; especially : a tool or device designed to do careful and exact work

 

I initially called this process the ‘Privatisation of Money’ but I realised that this terminology would be confusing because people understood money as private anyway. They were unaware of the social aspect of money. I realised that this process was actually better characterised as the Democratisation of Money.

 

Only later did I appreciate the significance of this.

 

The nearest analogy I can think of is that of a scientist drawing conclusions from a set of data. If the scientist draws an incorrect inference from data even if he does this knowingly, he is still operating within the terms of science, although bad science.

 

But when a scientist makes up data to conform to a pre arranged conclusion that is ‘Democratisation’. And if those conclusions are used to make a drug which kills lots of people that is the Credit Crunch. And if the scientist and the drug company he works for is let off by the Courts with paying a fine for all the damage they have caused, that is the United States of Everywhere.

 

After this I drew a link between Monetarist policy and privatisation. It went like this:

 

Monetarists seek to manage the economy through control of the money supply.

They seek to maximise privatisation.

They will seek to merge privatisation and Monetarism.

They will seek to privately control the money supply.

 

Is this analysis so incredible?

Is it so unbelievable?

I can’t understand why it is not generally accepted.

 

Well, that’s a shame of course but none of the above explains why Crackernomics matters to you, now.

 

Because all around us, if you look you will see that the opposition is starting to adapt to the new reality.

All the right wingers who were screaming about hyper-inflation and the Austrians who said there never could be a rise in interest rates and the radical leftists who put their faith in SYRIZA and all the countless others, the Gold Bugs and the Bitcoiners and all the rest are all starting, bit by bit, to make their accommodation with the way things are going to be.

 

Of course there will be back biting and recriminations and score settling and grumbling and selling out and all that stuff but when the smoke is settled the Monetarists will have got everything they wanted.

 

And the reason for that is the opposition have never really understood why they are fighting.

 

They have never really understood what they are fighting for.

 

And that is a shame.

 

The only way anyone can really appreciate what is actually at stake is through understanding Crackernomics and the Democratisation of Money.

 

For this reason I have no hesitation is recommending that you spend a little of your time reading ‘Crackernomics’ (it is free to download).

 

And I have no hesitation is suggesting you recommend it to anyone you think might be interested.

http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/312882

The Truth Is Out- Or Is It? or Do Banks Print Their Own Money? Part 1

dosh

 

The Truth Is Out: Money Is Just An IOU, And The Banks Are Rolling In It

David Graeber

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/18/truth-money-iou-bank-of-england-austerity

 

https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1698915/monetary-reform.pdf *

 

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf #

 

The charge that private banks create money in the form of debt and that debt money creation caused the credit crunch is a major charge against the financialised world economy and orthodox economics. This charge targets the Federal Reserve and central banks across the developed world as authors of the problem.

 

If this is an accurate understanding of the way the economy works then the solution to the credit crunch and its aftermath is relatively straightforward: ‘End the Fed’ and effectively nationalise it (and all central banks), and money making powers for socially desirable projects (such as reconstructing capitalism along traditional lines!). Proponents of this type of approach action include Ellen Brown on her ‘Web of Debt’ blog and Professor Steve Keen.

 

This argument does have a number of positive aspects to recommend it. It is underpinned by the desire to reconstitute a commons – money which serves everyone. It is a political solution that emphasises the need to have a political confrontation with the Monetarists that have hijacked the monetary system.

 

And all of this becomes ever more relevant in the light of a recent discussion paper by Frosti Sigurjonsson commissioned by the prime minister of Iceland* exploring the possibility of nationalising the money creation process. Iceland is noted for adopting a non mainstream approach to the credit Crunch and its consequences, nationalisation would be more of the same non orthodox approach. The most significant thing is that this approach again argues that a political solution to the Credit Crunch and financialisation is possible.

 

But it is not just the ‘unorthodox’ that are offering new ways of looking at money philosophy. A discussion paper by the Band of England ‘Monetary Analysis Directorate’# makes the admission that banks do in fact, print their own money, just like the insurgents claim. This document is startling for a number of reasons and well worth reading.

 

In a Guardian opinion piece by David Graeber more or less gets the tone of the insurgent ‘victory’:

 

‘Last week, something remarkable happened. The Bank of England let the cat out of the bag. In a paper called “Money Creation in the Modern Economy“, co-authored by three economists from the Bank’s Monetary Analysis Directorate, they stated outright that most common assumptions of how banking works are simply wrong, and that the kind of populist, heterodox (‘insurgent’- AP), positions more ordinarily associated with groups such as Occupy Wall Street are correct’

 

Surely, the first question that arises from this development has got to be: Why now? The Orthodoxy after decades if not centuries of standard monetary theory is now suddenly throwing in the towel and telling us the great unwashed occupy insurgents were right all along!

 

As David Graeber puts it:

‘Why did the Bank of England suddenly admit all this? ‘

And the answer?

‘Well, one reason is because it’s obviously true.

Hang on a minute, its obviously what you want to hear, but does that mean it is necessarily true?…and even if that is so, truth did not seem to be a consideration before…To be fair, David Graeber senses that this is not really an adequate explanation so he offers the following elaboration:

‘The Bank’s job is to actually run the system, and of late, the system has not been running especially well. It’s possible that it decided that maintaining the fantasy-land version of economics that has proved so convenient to the rich is simply a luxury it can no longer afford.’

 

Which itself leads to many more questions than it answers; Why has the Bank of England decided to deep six the elite it served so faithfully now? Better to turn to the paper itself, which after a first reading the text turns out to be a little more subtle and nuanced than might be supposed from reading the Guardian opinion piece about it.

 

In fact the paper itself turns out to be essentially a semi-orthodox defence of QE that smuggles a number of unorthodox ideas in the body of the argument, a kind of intellectual Quantitive Easing if you will. Nevertheless, the concessions it makes appear to be remarkable.

 

Still it would be good to keep this question in your mind as we proceed:

Why would the keepers of monetary orthodoxy need to make concessions to opposing points of view and why now?

 

Lets have a look at the concessions themselves. First of all the concession that private banks make money:

 

‘The reality of how money is created today differs from the description found in some economics textbooks:’

 

  • Rather than banks receiving deposits when households save and then lending them out, bank lending creates deposits.

 

  • In normal times, the central bank does not fix the amount of money in circulation, nor is central bank money ‘multiplied up’ into more loans and deposits.

 

The paper goes on to say that ‘lending’ out and ‘multiplying up’ of existing deposits in banks is little more than a childs bedtime story:

 

‘While the money multiplier theory can be a useful way of introducing money and banking in economic textbooks, it is not an accurate description of how money is created in reality’

 

So bank lending is not related to deposited money from the public in any way; the money is created from scratch. However, the paper repeatedly and forcefully argues this is not carte blanche to print:

 

‘Banks themselves face limits on how much they can lend. In particular:

 

  • Market forces constrain lending because individual banks have to be able to lend profitably in a competitive market.
  • Lending is also constrained because banks have to take steps to mitigate the risks associated with making additional loans.
  • Regulatory policy acts as a constraint on banks’ activities in order to mitigate a build-up of risks that could pose a threat to the stability of the financial system.’

 

Having disposed of deposit and money multiplier orthodoxy, the Bank of England goes on to attack the Monetarist quantity of money theory as another bedtime story:

 

‘In no way does the aggregate quantity of reserves directly constrain the amount of bank lending or deposit creation…..

Rather than controlling the quantity of reserves, central banks today typically implement monetary policy by setting the price of reserves — that is, interest rates’.

 

Cutting through the circumspect language, the core message is clear: The quantity of money is not a concern for the Bank of England. Targeting money quantity is voodoo economics; in other words the amount of money in the economy does not directly lead to inflation or anything else. The right wing shibboleth of hyperinflation through excessive printing is dismissed as a childish preoccupation, just like deposits and money multipliers.

 

Now we have got all that out of the way we can have a look at how things really work:

 

‘Banks first decide how much to lend depending on the profitable lending opportunities available to them — which will, crucially, depend on the interest rate set by the Bank of England’.

 

Let us be absolutely clear; this means the end of ‘risk’ as a supposed factor in the activities of banking. The ‘risk’ that lenders undertake in return for the ‘reward’ of interest is the risk of not making a profit – NOT the risk of losing their money. If a money lending institution makes no profit it will cease to exist just as surely as if it had lost all the ‘money’ it had ‘bet’ on various business enterprises.

 

And the paper freely admits that profitability is the province of the central bank. The Bank decides what will be profitable and what will not be profitable through the medium of interest rates. It must logically follow that the amount of ‘risk’ in the economy is entirely the creation of the central bank. (If you doubt this for even a second, just consider that this is exactly what ‘Too Big To Fail’ actually means…).

 

David Graeber makes this point quite elegantly in his Guardian piece:

 

There’s really no limit on how much banks could create, provided they can find someone willing to borrow it. They will never get caught short, for the simple reason that borrowers do not, generally speaking, take the cash and put it under their mattresses; ultimately, any money a bank loans out will just end up back in some bank again. So for the banking system as a whole, every loan just becomes another deposit.

 

And here is the Bank of England making the point ever more clearly:

 

‘The ultimate constraint on money creation is monetary policy.

 

By influencing the level of interest rates in the economy, the Bank of England’s monetary policy affects how much households and companies want to borrow. This occurs both directly, through influencing the loan rates charged by banks, but also indirectly through the overall effect of monetary policy on economic activity in the economy. (my emphasis). As a result, the Bank of England is able to ensure that money growth is consistent with its objective of low and stable inflation.’

 

Leaving the last bit aside for a moment, this again makes explicit the proclamation function of interest rates that I have discussed before. Bank money loans are made and bank deposits called into existence on the basis of the central bank proclamation of what will be profitable. Risk is not a factor. Amounts are not a factor. The only significant factor is the proclamation of profitability as expressed through interest rates. This is precisely democratised money theory as applied to credit.

 

Lets apply this radical orthodox/unorthodox anlaysis to the historical devleopment of democratised money and see what we come up with.

 

The economy is divided into two spheres; state and private.

 

  1. High interest rates are a central bank proclamation.

 

They proclaim the extent tow which the economy will be profitable by decree; i.e they say you should be able to make at least this much (base interest rate plus bank mark up) on any investment you undertake.

 

Profitablility expressly and explicitly means efficiency.Too many low productivity workers is inefficient- rationalise them. Government lending for social services is inefficient- cut back on it and so on…

 

This rationale describes the intent and effect of the famous Volcker interest rate rise that kicked off the Monetarist project in earnest. High interest rates served the Monetarist objective of diminishing the state and all ‘indulgent’ inefficient capitalist business.

 

  1. Low interest rates are a central bank proclamation.

 

They proclaim that the economy will be not be profitable by decree. i.e. they say you should be able to make little or nothing (base interest rate plus bank mark up) on any investment you undertake.

 

Lack of profitablility expressly and explicitly means inefficiency- many low productivity workers employed in low wage, low value added service sector jobs. Government lending for Quantitive Easing and TARP supported by low interest rates

 

This describes the intent and effect of the famous Bernanke interest rate slashing that kicked off the Q.E. project in earnest. Low interest rates served the Monetarist objective of making the state the entire guarantor of the post credit crunch economy, protecting all ‘indulgent’ inefficient financialised business.

 

High interest rates in the 80’s signalled shrinking the state, the end of ‘socialism’ and the consumer society post war settlement.

Low interest rates in the ‘00’s signalled an UNPRECEDENTED EXPANSION of the state in order to usher in an age of socialism for the rich….

 

Next time, Q.E.

But bear this in mind;

 

If banks really do print money, how come you never hear of anyone caught trying to get through airport customs with bunches of bank statements hidden in their underpants?…

Kentucky Fried Crackernomics Or Would You Like A Breast Or A Leg? Or The Mark To Market Of The Beast Or When the S**t Hits The Fan

o-UNIVERSITY-OF-KENTUCKY-570

‘Since 1971, U.S. citizens have been able to utilize Federal Reserve Notes as the only form of money that for the first time had no currency with any gold or silver backing.

This is where you get the saying that U.S. dollars are backed by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. Government. In other words, Nixon implied; take our paper dollars or don’t’.

http://buygoldandsilversafely.com/gold/what-really-backs-the-us-dollar/

 

It can’t be often that a concise and illuminating illustration of the nature of money pops up in the nexus between tattoos and professional sports. Once in a blue moon perhaps. Nevertheless….

 

Here are three important characteristics of money:

 

  1. Money is a contract- a set of words and images that embodies a decree. (This is the decree gold and silver bugs get confused about when they refer to fiat money). This decree element is a vital component of a money contract. It decrees the economic environment for the life of the money contract. This decree is expressed in the central bank interest rate in respect of that specific contract.

 

  1. This contract is mounted on a transferable medium. Something that can be securely transferred from one owner to another.

 

 

  1. The contract is issued by the relevant legal authority– which is the body authorised to mount that specific proclamation upon that specific transferable medium.

 

From the above we can go on to say:

 

  1. The validity of a money contract depends on the extent to which it decrees the nature of the real economy. The ‘value’ of that money contract is an expression of its validity.

 

In other words: The money contract is valid to the extent that it decrees the nature of the real economy. Not ‘reflects’ the nature of the economy, decrees it. It is valuable to the extent it is valid. This comprehensively defines the value of money.

 

5. A money decree is valid to the extent that everyone complies with the terms of the decree it embodies. It follows from this that a money decree is valuable to the extent that everyone complies with it.

 

6. A money decree is complied with to the extent that the money contracts issued compare with the amount of economic activity undertaken for the same territory and time span.

 

Which brings us to Kentucky Wildcats fan Rock Wright and his tattooed leg.

 

What is fascinating about Rock’s tattoo (and his leg to a lesser extent..) is that it functions more or less the same way as money. In fact, Rock has sort of turned himself into a piece of money!

 

Lets compare Rock and his leg tattoo to my three important characteristics of money:

 

  1. Money is a contract- a set of words and images that embodies a decree. (This is the decree ‘insurgents’ get confused about when they refer to fiat money).This decree element is a vital component of a money contract. It decrees the economic environment for the life of the money contract. This decree is expressed in the central bank interest rate in respect of that specific contract.

 

Rock, (the legal issuing authority*) has created a tattoo that makes a clear decree about what the future sports environment (economy,)will be. The subject of the decree is the activity of the Kentucky wildcats. The environment,(economy), the Wildcats are operating in is the Championship league. The term of the decree is up until the championship concludes with one winner which will be the Wildcats at which time Rocks money/tattoo will be retired as a decree and become a record.

 

  1. This contract is mounted on a transferable medium. Something that can be securely transferred from one owner to another.

 

Rock can transfer his allegiance from the Kentucky Wildcats to the Cincinnati Dipsticks (I’m grasping ), any time he wishes. Rock is not exactly a transferable medium, but in many societies tattoos were used as marks of ownership and allegiance. And marks like this may be used as such again…

 

  1. The contract is issued by the relevant legal authority– which is the body authorised to mount that specific proclamation upon that specific transferable medium.

 

*Rock is both the medium and the issuing authority as he owns his own body and can do with it what he likes.. Since this is the case, he has control over his body and what gets tattooed on it -at least for now….

 

From the above we can go on to say:

 

4.The validity of a money contract depends on the extent to which it is corresponds to the real economy. The value of that contract is an expression of its validity. It is valid to the extent that it corresponds to reality. It is valuable to the extent it is valid.

 

The validity of Rocks tattoo should be fairly obvious. If the Wildcats get spayed in the championships neither the tattoo or Rock himself is going to look too smart to anyone who sees them. If Rocks decree comes off he looks like a pretty cool, smart guy (at least to some people),  if it goes wrong, well Rock has got a plan for that too. Rock has got ‘faith’ in the Wildats and gives them ‘full credit’.

 

  1. A money decree is valid to the extent that everyone complies it.A money is decree is complied with to the extent of the amount of contracts issued compared with the amount of economic activity undertaken.

 

Because only Rock has got a Wildcat tattoo decreeing 40-0, the tattoo and the decree don’t look too good to most people right now- faith is medium to low. But if every fan in the league as well as every member of every team (including the Wildcats opponents!!) had a tattoo like Rock, a Wildcat Championship victory would be a shoe in. A self fulfilling prophecy. The decree would be ubiquitous and in full force.  Just like successful, valuable money is in any given territory.

 

There is something more we can say about tattoo money. The article refers to ‘Tyler Black’ who also had a decree tattoo just like Rocks.:

‘We still like Wright’s odds more than Tyler Black’s.

Black, also a Kentucky diehard, had a 2014 Kentucky national championship tattoo branded on his leg before last year’s SEC tournament, even though the Wildcats lost 9 regular season games.’

 

Now that we have more than one money decree tattoo, we can start to build up a history of ‘Wildcat Tattoo Money’. Comparing the relative validity of each tattoo while at the same time taking them in their totality means we can build up a picture of this currency over time. Just like we can with ordinary currency. And if everyone in Kentucky had a tattoo for every season….

 

New International Version

‘There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under the heavens:’

 

Plugholenomics or There’s No BISness Like ShowBISness or This Boot Was Made For War Kings or Crack(ernomics) In The World or Thank God It’s Only A Motion Picture!

 

 

BIS

 

crackinworld

 

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” – Warren Buffett

Here is a paradox.

The area round the plughole remains the last place to dry out when you are emptying the bath. The place where the actual hole is, is the last place to feel the effects of the hole. All the rest of the bath dries out first. You would think that the place where the hole first appeared would be the first to become dry, wouldn’t you?

 

Same with money.

 

In previous pieces I have described the international war on state issued currency led by America. Interest rate reduction (Zero Interest Rate Policy), and quantitive easing have been used to lower the value of all state issued currency in comparison to stateless Democratised Money or derivatives.

 

When the Derivatives boat started sinking in 2008, International Monetarists used ZIRP and QE to blast a massive sinkhole in the financial earths crust draining out state money liquidity. The theory was that if the sea level could be made to drop faster than the derivatives boat dropped, the boat could not sink!

 

State money liquidity flowed into the massive financial chasm caused by Monetarists. But it flowed from the periphery first. It is the developing world that became dried out as the sea emptied. The plughole still has liquidity at this time. Ironically, Despite the fact that USA is leading the war on state money, it is their national currency that remains one of the strongest.

Here is another metaphor:

 

When an atomic bomb detonates you can see the shockwave blast pushing outwards, but this is rapidly followed by a vacuum that develops at ground zero, which then sucks IN all the stuff that was initially blasted outwards. QE and ZIRP blasted ‘free’ money out from America into the developing economies- the initial shockwave. Now that money is being sucked back into the vacuum at ground zero. First the periphery was blasted one way now it is being blasted the opposite way.

It is this flow, first outwards and then inwards that is causing all the devastation. It is this flow that is the real cause behind the oil price shocks that are causing financial carnage among oil producers. But it is not just the developing nations that are feeling the effects of this flow.

 

Basel, Switzerland is the home of the Bank of International Settlements and the Financial Stability Board. In fact they share the same building, which is incongruously shaped like a massive Roman boot. It is ironic that the Swiss franc has been caught up in the blast, exploding in comparative value compared to the Euro and destroying Swiss export viability.

 

It is the Bank of International Settlements and the Financial Stability Board that are creating the legislation for the new Democratised Money World Order. Yet in doing this it seems they are laying waste the very territory they are situated on and protected by. Do you think the time might come when even the Swiss population have had enough of them and break out the pitchforks?

 

Perhaps the most appropriate metaphor would be that of a magma chamber that forms the reservoir for a volcano. First the magma chamber expands upwards then it contracts, then it blows.

 

The first hole in the financial earths crust was planned by the Monetarists. Now It appears that another fissure has opened up . This one was unplanned and unforeseen. I wonder what is going to happen next…..

‘Painting’ by George W Bush..

bush_bathtub

 

 

 

Crackernomics 14/15 The Devil And The Law Or Articles Of Faith

 

The news that the Bank of England is preparing to release the minutes of their emergency Credit Crunch deliberations, (suitably censored of course), is a confirmation that 2014 was a time of consolidation and the consequences of five years of Credit Crunch shenanigans coming to the fore. It was a time of tying up loose ends and setting the stage for the next round of change.

 

With this in mind I would like to briefly review two of the most important events of 2014: The tapering of the Federal Reserve bond buying programme and the Brisbane G20 meeting in which the rules for the ongoing management of ‘systemically important’ banks were broadly finalised.

 

The Tale Of The Tapering

 

It has been an article of faith on the radical side of economics that there would be no substantial winding down of the Federal Reserves QE programme, yet the Tapering duly appeared in the latter half of the year when the Fed stopped its ongoing purchases of privately issued money in the form of ‘bonds’.

 

In response to this development insurgent pundits chose to focus on the fact that QE as a global phenomenon was still ongoing. They observed that Japan was engaged on a new round of QE; the infamous ‘Abenomics’, and Europe is supposed to get in on the act later in the year with a big fat euro-helping of bond purchases (at least according to Mario Draghi and the ECB..)

 

So is tapering on or not?

Is QE still on or not?

 

Tapering for the USA is on, for Japan it is not and for Europe it will probably never begin. This is because unsurprisingly, conditions are different in America, Japan and Europe.

 

O.K. then, this leads us to the question: What is different between America and Europe and Japan?

 

America and England- the main Saxon economies, have experienced some sort of economic ‘growth’ although this is hardly traditional (certainly not export and manufacturing led), and it is mainly credit based. They have managed to do this because they have partially at least, restructured both their societies and economies. Which leads to the question: What is the nature of this restructuring?

 

  1. Both America and Britain are some way along the road to establishing a Permanent Credit Economy. This means: Increased deregulation and a shrunken state.
  2. Discontinuation of the work and social rights and safeguards that have been a feature of developed economies since the end of WWII and most importantly of all:
  3. An end to the consumer society, by which I mean an end of freely disposable income.

 

Remember! Saving is free disposal of income the same as spending is; this freedom is the essence of the ‘consumer society’. Prohibiting saving is a deliberate infringement of this freedom.

 

In contrast to America and Britain, Japan and Europe have so far significantly failed to restructure both society and economy.

 

Despite two decades of a kamikaze war on saving, Japan is still a ‘bank it’ society. Why is this?

 

Japan never established a welfare state in the way that it would be understood in Europe or even America. Instead it created a full employment model, which in theory made welfarism mostly unnecessary. In essence, saving was a necessary part of preparing for retirement since the state was only going to offer minimal protection. This worked until the labour market was deregulated in the post 1980’s Big Bang. Once the Japanese ‘job for life’ went away , a culture of saving and insurance became even more important. This is why Abenomics is insane. In essence it is like trying to frighten people out of buying insurance!

 

Remember! Saving is free disposal of income the same as spending is; the essence of the ‘consumer society’. Prohibiting saving is a deliberate infringement of this freedom

 

(As I write I hear on ‘Max Keiser’ that the Japanese savings rate has gone negative for the first time since the 1950’s and wages are falling rapidly too..but the next big question will be where has this money gone?)

 

Europe, especially Southern Europe, is markedly different form the Anglo Saxon and Northern German economies. Here the problem is that the post WWII state never managed to establish the depth of control necessary to implement something like the QE economic restructuring programme. Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal, (did I hear someone mention Eire?), are all characterised by the fact that they have found it impossible to create a stable geographical and political boundary, never mind such a thing as a stable North European civil society. Fundamental structural weaknesses are increasingly being brought to the surface by national elites trying to implement austerity on behalf of German led Europe. One effect of this is the appearance of Cultural Constituencies (see previous post).

 

So what is going to happen next?
America will raise interest rates towards 21/2 % (as per my earlier forecast) which will mean that fully half the worlds economy is serviced by privately issued democratised money.

‘Hang on a minute!’ , I hear you say,

 

‘That’s impossible! There is no way that the Anglo Saxon elite will rise interest rates with the economy in the fragile condition it is in.’

 

But your analysis assumes that this is an economic decision and it is not. It is a political decision. It is the next step in the normalisation of privately issued democratised money. It is exactly the same in this respect as the dynamics controlling what happens in Europe. And China. And Eurasia.

 

And what will happen when American interest rates rise?

Intellectually we will come face to face with the lurking horror, the heart of darkness that has threatened to emerge from its cave since this all began in the 1970’s.

 

The Devil and the Law: Bankrupt Bankruptcy

 

The year end season finale of the democratised money project was the announcement of new rules for the resolution of banks in trouble at the Brisbane round of the G20, usually known as the ‘Bail In’ rules.

 

Proposed by the Financial Stability Board and titled the ‘Adequacy of Loss-Absorbing Capacity of Global Systemically Important Banks in Resolution” this G20 endorsed plan was created to establish a stable ongoing banking framework to support democratised money.

 

I cannot emphasise enough the importance of this document, because it specifically lays out the boundaries governing the survival of individual banks and the growth of democratised money.

 

One of the fundamental mistakes made by the insurgent economic opposition is to argue that it is financial institutions that are being protected by the Monetarist state. This is wrong. It is not specific institutions, but democratised money that is being shielded and protected by the international legislative framework that is being put in place.

 

In fact, hard core Monetarists would be quite keen to see one or two small to mid sized banks go to ‘resolution’ to refute the charge of crony capitalism. When this happens the insurgents will be dumbfounded; they will not be able to understand that the failure of these one or two banks guarantees the survival of democratised money because it legitimises the system as being ‘fair’.

 

To this end the resolution document specifically states that the derivatives held by financial institutions will be given unchallenged precedence over all other creditors. In other words, they will not be paid a proportion of what they are owed on a pro rata basis like other creditors, they will be paid in full, off the top.

 

The international law says that derivatives cannot be written down like private debts. They are above private debts and sacrosanct. They are sacrosanct because they are money- democratised money with the full weight of national governments behind them. And this is now international law.

 

This is the significance of the bail in. Not that it will affect ordinary small scale bank customers, but that it places state money deposits at the mercy of democratised money. And ordinary people are not going to stand up for the rights of large scale investors, are they?

 

Again to reiterate:

 

It is not Banks being given precedence over individuals. It is Democratised Money in the form of derivatives being precedence over State Money in the form of deposits.

 

Even more shockingly, this document effectively proposes an end of bankruptcy for banks, to be replaced by the process of ‘resolution’ I referred to above.

 

As I observed in ‘Crackernomics’, bankruptcy is a Capitalist Sacrament; the equivalent of the Last Rites of the Catholic Liturgy. It is the means and justification by which a dying Corporation passes on to the afterlife. It is supposed to be the fair and equitable legal basis for the entire concept of limited liability. For it to be effectively abandoned is astounding.

 

In Crackernomics I examined the bankruptcy procedure and what it means, (used to mean). I also argued that the legal changes created by the democratisation of money would be as significant and far reaching as those of the end of Soviet Russia. This vindicates that view.

 

One of the fundamental principles of Capitalism itself has been quietly dispensed with.

 

As if these two developments were not astounding enough there is another philosophical change, more subtle and perhaps more pernicious for that.The difference between ‘failed’ and ‘failing’. Because banks aren’t going to fail anymore. Instead they are going to be ‘failing’ and they could be failing without actually having failed for a long time- maybe forever. Which means there might never be an ending that is understandable to the majority of their creditors and shareholders.

 

That is what ‘resolution’ really means.

 

‘Its Not Me, Its You’ , Or Irreconcilable Differences

 

In recent correspondence Dave Harrison from ‘Trade With Dave’ made the following very pertinent observations:

A). Zero interest rate policy means no more time value to money.  

B) Mervyn King’s “divorced currency” model could also mean politics divorced from economics.

 

What binds politics and economics together is the law. Law is the formal expression of will of the society that creates it. Law as applied to the material conditions of a society creates an economy.

 

When Dave Harrison points to Kings ‘divorced currency’ model as the future he is really pointing towards a system that has chosen to seek to circumvent its own foundational principles. And the means by which it is doing this can best be expressed as an end of accounting.

 

Just as elites abandoned ‘mark to market’, (which means saying what any given stock or bond is actually worth here and now) so zero or limited interest rates means abandoning any idea of what state money is worth here and now. And that is very important, because if people ever got a real idea of what State Money is worth here and now they might start asking some awkward questions.

 

In the same way the derivatives that infest the books of ever major financial institution can never actually be brought to the book and reconciled. Because if they were, then their value relationship to state money would have to be examined and that would lead to some awkward questions etc.

 

The Devil and The Law Or ‘If She Be a Witch’…

 

Henry the Eighth famously divorced himself from the Catholic Church in pursuit of a divorce from Catherine of Aragon. He then married Anne Boleyn. And when he did not want Anne Boleyn anymore he famously got Cromwell to argue that the marriage to Anne was just as invalid as his wedding to Catherine!

 

And who could argue the point? They had gone along with the first crime, how could they stand against the second?

They were damned if they did and damned if they didn’t.

 

Once the state has interfered in the markets, rigged and controlled them, how can it ever claim that there are ‘free markets’ again? If you argue for the state to get out of the economy, then you negate everything that has happened since 2008. But this is madness, what is done is done, it cannot be undone. Free markets are over whether you like it or not.

 

You cannot become a virgin again, no matter how much you regret your first night! You can only live in a fantasy world of regret or face reality. No- one except a madman will ever dare argue in favour of ‘free markets’ again.

 

If you abandon your first principles you make yourself a liar from then on no matter what you do to try to fix it. This is what is meant by the devil turning on you.