I am updating this piece as it is being written in the light of ongoing events
Whatever else is going on, one thing is clear; everybody is playing for keeps in Syria.
The Damascus chemical attack is a rare moment, clearly seen by everyone as a turning point and not just for the Middle East. Room for a fudge has diminished until it is vanishingly small. One way or another, everyone is now going to be forced to take sides in the Syrian conflict. On the surface this is how it splits:
The attack either took place or it did not.
There is no independent way of verifying that an attack using a known chemical weapon agent such as Sarin actually happened. The evidence of a chemical attack of this nature will always be open to dispute in any event. There is no doubt that the ‘Neo Con’ faction will say such an attack occurred even if the evidence is highly contentious.
(Cameron admitted in the House of Commons debate that evaluating the available evidence of an attack was ‘a matter of judgement’)
The attack resulted in mass casualties including women and children or it did not.
There is plenty of evidence of the Cannibal army producing propaganda material, especially to promote the case for western intervention. There is also plenty of evidence that the western media uncritically jump on this material and use it to promote war. But it is also clear that much of the public has become increasingly wary of the ‘stampede’ tactic- weapons of mass destruction in Iraq etc. If it should turn out that the footage of casualties is not all it seems to be, the media which accepted it unchallenged would suffer a major, possibly even a terminal blow.
Either the Assad regime or the Cannibal army carried out the attack.
If the Assad regime did it then there will be the perfect pretext for an attack and the overthrow of the last secular regime in the Middle East. But if the Cannibal army can be shown to have done it, then they too are finished.
(Since it is clear now that a significant minority of the public and politicians are not willing to accept the media narrative, you can expect a major corporate media offensive to shore up credibility and make the public accept their version of events)
Somebody is going down and pretty soon. Given the way these things have played out in the recent past it seems reasonable to assume (barring a major upset), that it is the Assad regime that is due to go.
But hang on a minute, the fat lady is not singing, not just yet.
First of all, there is still no widespread public support, either in USA or England for an attack on Syria despite nearly two years of pro war propaganda.
Second, there is no public trust in the official narrative with regard to Syria (eg. the public does not yet believe that Assad carried out this or any other attack)
Third, there is no widespread support within Syria for the Cannibal Army
Fourth, there is no guarantee that the Russians and the Chinese will roll over and take it.
In short, there is no guarantee that the West can pull it off.
But why should that matter? -there was no guarantee that the Saxon Axis could pull off Iraq and Libya (and in point of fact, the Saxon Axis secured at best limited and partial success in these areas), but that did not stop them going ahead with those adventures.
The determining factor is not if Obama achieves his stated objectives in atacking Syria.
What matters is that Obama can get away with it if he fails to achieve his objectives- what matters are the consequences of failure.
If you think I am predicting some kind of peasants uprising that will bring the elite to justice for war crimes across the Middle East, I am not. The danger to each faction of the elite comes not from the public but from the other of the two. One section of the elite might be willing and able to pin a failure in Syria on the other one. This is what is different and defining about contemporary events and this is why both sides in this secret war are playing for keeps.
Weapons of mass destruction in Iraq are a familiar illustration of this principle. It has been clearly shown that there were none. Which means that the invasion of Iraq was a war crime, yet no-one has been brought to book.
Because no one with the real power to cause any trouble is interested in causing any trouble. In other words the media and political elite regard it as being in their best interest to present a common front against the idea that any of them could be brought to book for events in Iraq. So even though Blair and Bush were shown to have committed what was at least a terrible act of incompetence they know they are in no danger of facing a war comes tribunal. This foreknowledge is essential if elites are going to have the confidence to act.
Ask yourself this question: What would politics look like if politicians didn’t have that confidence?
There are two elite Anglo Saxon political factions that no longer have an interest in the consensus as it has previously existed. Events in the Middle East are one arena they are fighting in. Whoever loses in the international arena as a consequence loses in the domestic arena. Most people have figured out the conflict has nothing to do with Republican or Democrat allegiances. In fact, these allegiances can be said to be secret from the public.
We need a framework within which we can understand who these two elite competing groups are, and what exactly divides them.
Obama is plainly not left wing or even liberal, either in terms of domestic or international policy. Yet it is clear that his agenda diverges significantly from that of the Neo Cons in the USA elite.
In domestic policy he has followed the policy of reducing ‘entitlements’ and supporting the financial sector.
He is plainly less enthusiastic about military action as it is undertaken by the Neo Cons. But this is not because he is anti-war;Obama likes to use drones. Obama just does not want to fight Neo con wars on Neo Con terms.
Obama’s sees himself as the forerunner of a whole generation of black politicians in the run up to 2040 (racial tipping point in USA). He sees himself as struggling against a racist Neo-Con plot to bring him down using whatever means come to hand, including Syria. His entire purpose is his personal political survival and by extension the survival of what he represents- the new black political class. He sees the ‘red-lines’ as a trap that McCain sprung on him. In return he is now busily wrapping McCain and the Neo-Cons up so tightly in the coming attack that no matter how it plays out they cannot use it against him. This is Obama’s politics and his morality- the struggle against McCain and all the other Yankee Boers- his war against American Apartheid.
The secret civil war in Washington is every bit as vicious as the one in Syria is.